The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced in a May 3 statement it has lowered its economic growth forecast for Senegal to 7.1% for 2024. The institution cited uncertainty related to the presidential election held last March and a delay in gas production. The previous estimate was 8.3%.
"Economic growth for 2024 is now projected at 7.1 percent down from 8.3 percent, reflecting weaker economic activity due to the electoral context and delays in gas production to December 2024," the institution said, following a team of experts' visit to Dakar from April 25 to May 3, 2024.
The IMF also indicated that economic activity growth in the first quarter of 2024 was weaker than expected due to political uncertainties related to the presidential election. “High-frequency indicators suggest that economic activity was subdued as businesses postponed investments and consumers cut back on spending (…) Budget execution was marked by a revenue shortfall and an overrun in the energy subsidy,†the statement read.
It is noteworthy that President Bassirou Diomaye Faye succeeded President Macky Sall (2012-2024) in early April after winning in the first round against the ruling party's candidate, former Prime Minister Amadou Bâ. The election took place amidst tensions that have caused dozens of deaths since 2021, according to human rights defenders.
Furthermore, the commencement of production from offshore gas fields shared with Mauritania and developed by British BP with American Kosmos Energy, the Mauritanian Hydrocarbons Company (SMH), and the Senegalese Petroleum Company (Petrosen), initially scheduled for late 2023, is expected this year.
The IMF also noted that Senegal's economic growth exceeded expectations in 2023 (4.6%), reflecting a good agricultural campaign and a strong tertiary sector.